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Ashton B. Carter, William
J. Perry (1999).
Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America.
Washington:
Brookings Institution Press. pp. 243.
ISBN 0-8157-1308-8
The
United States of America is founding its national security
and military strategies on three groups of activities, called
preparing, shaping and responding. Responding
capability refers to current readiness of the armed forces
to engage and successfully annihilate open threats to national
security. That readiness was assessed during the nineties
according to the military capability in successfully waging
and winning two almost simultaneous major theater wars,
like the one in Korea and in The Gulf. The preparing aspect
of the strategy refers to modernization, restructuring and
continuous adaptations of the national security system,
in order to maintain its high readiness and effectiveness
against possible future challenges. The development, acquisition
and exploitation cycle for major weapon systems lasts for
twenty to thirty or more years. That is only one of the
many reasons why today's decisions have far-reaching consequences
for the capabilities of the armed forces in the next decades.
Environment shaping, sometimes called luck management, is
also a way to prepare for the future. It consists of active
engagement in world affairs to prevent the development of
new major threats to American and international security.
With
the fall of the Berlin Wall the only threat from the 'A-list'
disappeared. The 'A-list' contains the most dangerous threats
to the existence of the USA and Western world. The former
Soviet Union had the capability to destroy Western values
and Western order, but such an enemy to the West no longer
exists. The major part of US defense planning is now directed
towards maintaining the capability to wage two major theater
wars. Such regional contingencies might endanger American
interests and security, but would not question the existence
of the United States. Therefore, wars of this type can be
categorized in belonging to the 'B-list' of threats. Public
interest seems to be oriented mostly towards the activities
that deal with the 'C-list' of threats, like those in Bosnia-Herzegovina
or Kosovo. However, the 'A-list' may not remain clear forever.
One of the most important goals of the American security
system is to keep the 'A-list' clear as long as possible.
Dr Perry and Dr Carter argue that this is the essential
element of the preventive defense strategy, which they theoretically
developed at Harvard and Stanford universities and practically
applied during their terms in the US government.
Questions
such as "How might the post-cold war era end?"
"How can the United States prolong this period of peace
and influence?" "How can we ensure that if it
must end, it ends gracefully, without cataclysm?"
and "What is the character of the era that will
follow it?" define the fundamental long-term strategic
challenges of the post-cold war era. The authors have identified
five challenges of that type, which might evolve into the
'A-list' of threats. They defined these dangers as follows:
-
Russia might descend into chaos, isolation, and aggression
as Germany did after World War I;
-
Russia and the other Soviet successor states might lose
control of the nuclear legacy of the former Soviet Union;
-
China could grow hostile rather than becoming cooperatively
engaged in the international system;
-
Weapons of mass destruction will proliferate and present
a direct military threat to the United States; and
-
"Catastrophic terrorism" of unprecedented scope
and intensity might occur on US territory.
If the
US responds to these dangers in the right manner, it will
be possible to realize George C. Marshall's vision of the
world not of threats to be deterred, but of a world "united
in peace, freedom, and prosperity." This is where
the sixth key threat to American security lies. That threat
lies in ignoring the previously identified five potential
dangers because of temporarily advantageous power relations
in the world.
Each
chapter in the book is dedicated to one of the six security
challenges. The chapters start with vivid and lively memories
of Mr Perry at an event during his term as the Secretary
of Defense, which is relevant to the topic. The main part
of each chapter consists of the problem analysis, investigation
of possible preventive strategies, description of already
taken steps, and recommendations for future action. These
discussions are case studies of preventive defense mechanisms.
To be successful, preventive defense must combine all the
instruments of foreign policy: political, economic and military.
The exact type of actions and means used in a particular
situation will depend on the circumstances, but because
of the character of activities and capabilities of the American
armed forces, preventive defense falls primarily into the
military domain.
In the
case of Russian and Central European stabilization, preventive
defense requires fostering military-to-military cooperation,
promotion of the Partnership for Peace Program, careful
NATO enlargement, officer education, and appropriate economic
assistance. In the case of preventing nuclear technology
proliferation from the former USSR, the expert and economic
assistance offered through the Nunn-Lugar program provided
for denuclearization of the Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan.
Intercontinental ballistic missiles are dismounted, nuclear
material is centrally stored, and employment programs for
nuclear scientists are launched. An important element of
these efforts is arms control negotiations, which resulted
in START treaties. These negotiations should be continued.
American
relations with China are not sufficiently developed. Under
the preventive defense agenda, direct military cooperation
with China should be initiated, and China should be more
actively involved in the search for solutions to global
security issues. Preventive defense against weapons of mass
destruction should rely not only on international anti-proliferation
treaties, inspections and sanctions for those who do not
obey prescribed norms of behavior. Active and passive defense
measures must be developed, and unstable regions should
be stabilized to decrease the incentive for proliferation
and acquisition of nuclear, chemical or biological weapons.
Regarding
the prevention of catastrophic terrorism, the intelligence
collection system should be restructured, new analytical
capabilities established, and new and more effective methods
for tracking and prevention of that dangerous threat invented.
Finally, preventive defense applied to the American armed
forces is embodied in the preparing activities. The
important role in that area is technological modernization
coupled with appropriate doctrine improvements and force
restructuring (which together forms the revolution in
military affairs). Equally important are the changes
in management of defense assets (so called revolution
in business affairs), and sustainment of personnel quality,
training and motivation.
The
book deserves careful reading, because the problems described
do not only influence United States security, but the stability
of the whole international community as well. The book will
have significant impact because of the high-quality analysis
provided and because of personal influence of its authors.
Dr Perry and Dr Carter today jointly lead a research project
at Harvard and Stanford universities on preventive defense.
Apart from being distinguished professors, they share significant
experience in public service, industry and academia. It
should be mentioned that William Perry served as the US
Secretary of Defense from 1994 to 1997, and that Dr Carter
acted as Assistant Secretary for Defense Policy in the same
term. It was the time when the first Quadrennial Defense
Review was prepared, which defined preventive actions aimed
at shaping security environment as one of the three pillars
of national security strategy.
The
book is also thought provoking for readers from a small
country such as the Republic of Croatia. The book shows
how a global power like the United States views its own
and global security in the coming decades. Due to the power
and influence of the United States in the international
community, its positions often define the frame for political
activities to other players. In that sense, the authors'
observations on NATO enlargement and the role of the Partnership
for Peace are especially interesting. The authors pledge
for the increased role of the PfP, which is too marginalized,
and for the slower enlargement of NATO. In their view, that
would help to avoid additional complications in relations
with Russia, while at the same time provide some of the
advantages that eastern European countries expect from gaining
NATO membership.
However,
a more profound lesson of the book may be in the method
that the authors use to contemplate strategic problems of
national security. Elements of this approach are: the classification
of threats; focus on those threats that might cause the
most serious consequences; the assessment of shaping options
and means; analytical thinking; integration of all elements
of national power; and long-term planning. Such an approach
is applicable to improve the international and national
security of many countries in different positions, and not
only of a global power such as the United States.
Prof.
dr. sc. Krešimir Ćosić
mr. sc. Dražen Penzar
Institute for Defense Studies,
Research and Development
Ministry of Defense,
Republic of Croatia
Bijenička 46, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia
dpenzar@public.srce.hr